Luck vs the underlying and points left on the table
Luck vs the field
Variance
+20pts
Variance ran in your favour, about 20 pts hotter than the field. Strip it from everyone and your rank drops.
Your rank without the luck
≈21k
▼ 12k lower
Match the field's luck and you'd be down around 21k, not the 8,995 you banked. The bounces went your way.
How's this worked out?
We strip the luck out of your finishing and captaincy. Owning the same in-form players as everyone else isn't luck, it's a choice, so only the variance that set you apart counts. Then we do the same for every other manager and re-rank the whole table: the lucky teams stacked above you drop back too, so this is where your season really placed. A best estimate, not an exact rank.
Each player's actual points vs their own underlying xG, xA and clean sheets. A different lens from the luck figure above, so they won't tally.
Overperformers
Value efficiency
Where the money went vs where the points came from
32% of your squad value sat in forwards who returned 24% of your points.
Spend vs return by position
SpendReturn
GKP7% spend · 8% return
DEF21% spend · 28% return
MID40% spend · 40% return
Ownership patterns
Template lean and differential bets
Template lean
Average ownership across XI starts
26%
Most-started XI · top 11
Haaland64.6%30 gw
Raya30.8%25 gw
Gabriel39.4%21 gw
B.Fernandes
Fixture difficulty
How your XI fared against strong and weak opponents
Avg XI points per gameweek
Easiest 10 GWs66
Hardest 10 GWs54
+12 pts a gameweek when fixtures softened
Hauls in the hardest fixtures
SemenyoMID · MCI · GW 4 · vs MUN
13 pts
Decision ledger
What each lever cost or gained. Ranked, not summed
Your biggest single leak this season was your bench, costing you 344 points. The biggest swing the other way was your transfers, worth 230 points.
Ranked by points swung
Benchleft on your bench
−344 pts
Transfersvs holding your players
+230 pts
Chipsfrom your chipsestimate
+144 pts
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Opening week only; a Wildcard's value builds over the following weeks.
Bench Boost #2GW 33 · 128 pts · +14 from the bench
Best timing was GW 30.
Free Hit #2GW 34 · 59 pts · +46 vs your old team
PlayedField medianBest timing
Ranked by impact
1.FH2+46
2.WC1+24
3.TC1+16
4.BB1+14
5.BB2+14
6.WC2+12
7.FH1+11
8.TC2+7
B.FernandesMID19w · 83 actual vs 52.9 expected+30
HaalandFWD30w · 112 actual vs 89.9 expected+22
SemenyoMID18w · 52 actual vs 38.4 expected+14
BowenFWD8w · 24 actual vs 11.3 expected+13
MintehMID8w · 20 actual vs 8.7 expected+11
Underperformers
EnzoMID15w · 22 actual vs 40.9 expected−19
PalmerMID4w · 1 actual vs 11.5 expected−11
SenesiDEF7w · 9 actual vs 17.0 expected−8
RayaGKP25w · 43 actual vs 50.9 expected−8
GyökeresFWD10w · 8 actual vs 15.4 expected−7
Weekly shape
Field avg
020406080100120
Stddev 17.1 pts · beat the field 32 of 38 weeks.
Worst week
39pts
GW22 · 24 below your usual
Best week
128pts
GW33 · 65 above your usual
Points left on the table
Counterfactuals
Haaland239
Bowen187
Thiago181
B.Fernandes235
Semenyo202
Rice184
Anderson180
Gabriel209
Senesi175
Virgil175
Raya162
Best XI ever owned · 3-4-3
2,129pts
Combined season points of these 11. Raw, before captain or chip multipliers.
Lost to red cards3 pts
Lost to 0-min starts0 pts
Only the 0-min starts your bench couldn't cover. Auto-subs handled the rest.
FWD32% spend · 24% return
Best value · pts per £m paid
GabrielDEF · ARS · 146 pts · 21 gw
23.5£6.2m paid
RayaGKP · ARS · 104 pts · 25 gw
18.9£5.5m paid
O'ReillyDEF · MCI · 90 pts · 15 gw
17.0£5.3m paid
LacroixDEF · CRY · 80 pts · 16 gw
16.0£5.0m paid
B.FernandesMID · MUN · 137 pts · 18 gw
15.2£9.0m paid
Worst value · pts per £m paid
M.SalahMID · LIV · 34 pts · 6 gw
2.3£14.5m paid
EkitikéFWD · LIV · 26 pts · 6 gw
2.9£9.0m paid
GyökeresFWD · ARS · 27 pts · 10 gw
3.0
Starting XI · spend by per-GW value · value per £m paid
37.5%18 gw
Semenyo49.5%18 gw
Lacroix5.3%16 gw
Thiago32.3%16 gw
O'Reilly11.5%15 gw
Enzo16.0%15 gw
Rice28.2%15 gw
Mbeumo22.0%13 gw
Differential · <5%Mid · 5-15%Template · >15%
Differential share
GW12 · 39%GW11 · 24%
110203038
Differential wins
110203038
GroßMID · BHA · GW 33
16 pts3.1% EO
Dewsbury-HallMID · EVE · GW 12
13 pts2.6% EO
O'ReillyDEF · MCI · GW 26
13 pts4.4% EO
LacroixDEF · CRY · GW 12
11 pts4.1% EO
StruijkDEF · LEE · GW 33
10 pts4.8% EO
TavernierMID · BOU · GW 38
10 pts4.2% EO
MintehMID · BHA · GW 10
9 pts4.1% EO
Top scorers never owned
Gibbs-WhiteMID · NFO
188 pts
GuéhiDEF · MCI
179 pts
TarkowskiDEF · EVE
170 pts
TruffertDEF · BOU
165 pts
CasemiroMID · MUN
165 pts
Dewsbury-HallMID · EVE · GW 12 · vs MUN
13 pts
HaalandFWD · MCI · GW 25 · vs LIV
11 pts
B.FernandesMID · MUN · GW 30 · vs AVL
10 pts
MbeumoMID · MUN · GW 8 · vs LIV
9 pts
Blanks in the easiest fixtures
RodonDEF · LEE · GW 8 · vs BUR
1 pts
João PedroFWD · CHE · GW 12 · vs BUR
1 pts
StruijkDEF · LEE · GW 35 · vs BUR
1 pts
KelleherGKP · BRE · GW 30 · vs WOL
1 pts
DioufDEF · WHU · GW 1 · vs SUN
1 pts
RayaGKP · ARS · GW 11 · vs SUN
1 pts
GabrielDEF · ARS · GW 11 · vs SUN
1 pts
Contrarian captaincyvs the template captain
+56 pts
Hitsthe −4s you took
−8 pts
Your active management was worth +668 pts overall. These rows break it down but don't add up to it; each is measured a different way.
The Wildcard figure is measured on the opening week only, a directional estimate; its real value plays out over the following weeks.
Beyond your decisions
Your XI and armband ran about 20 points hotter than the field. That lift was variance, not your decisions, so your rank reads kinder than your season earned.
Captaining your top scorer every week would have added 349 points, a ceiling no one reaches.